Monsoon likely to set in over Kerala on May 26

May 15, 2009
Courtesy: The Hindu
Delhi
NEW DELHI: The much-awaited south-west monsoon is finally on its way.
The India Meteorological Department on Thursday forecast that it is likely to set in over Kerala, its entry point to the Indian mainland, on May 26, with a model error of plus or minus four days.
The onset could be at least a few days before the normal date, which is June 1.
During the last 50 years, the earliest monsoon onset over Kerala was in 1960, when it set in on May 14 and the most delayed onset was in 1972, when it arrived only on June 18.
An IMD press release also said the monsoon, could, meanwhile, advance over the Andaman Sea on May 20, which is the normal date for that region. “It is expected that within 2 or 3 days, monsoon flow will start appearing over the Andaman Sea and the monsoon is likely to cover the Andaman Sea close to its normal date.”
IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005, using statistical techniques. Last year, it predicted that the onset would be on May 29 and the actual onset took place on May 31, just one day prior to the normal date.
In 2007, the prediction was for an onset on May 24 and the actual arrival was four days later on May 28. In 2006, the forecast was for May 30, and it set in four days earlier on May 26.
In 2005 also, there was a gap of four days between the predicted date (June 7) and the actual onset (June 5).
Senior IMD officials said the possible earlier onset did not mean earlier arrival over other parts of the country too, especially north India and other interior parts of the country. In its long range forecast for the season in its entirety and the country as a whole, issued on April 17, the IMD predicted that the monsoon this year would be near normal, with a rainfall of 96 per cent of the long period average, which is 89 cm.